Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Thank you, thank you, thank you, to one and all who sent me kind words yesterday about my ordeal on Friday… I’m a lucky guy… In fact, at the old EverBank they used to call me Lucky… it was in fun, because I had been through so much. But in reality, I am very, very lucky, to not only have an inner strength that keeps me going, but to have dear readers, friends, family, and good doctors… So, thank you again… I get so touched to read those responses… 15 years ago, when I first was diagnosed with cancer, and was out for some time, my friend, and former colleague, Chris Gaffney, printed out all the responses to my announcement, and put them in a binder and brought them to me to read… I had tears in my eyes, just reading all of them.. Jack Jezzro and friends greet me this morning with his bossa nova style version of the song: My Favorite Things.
Well, yesterday, was a dud, with regard to dollar trading… The dollar index, aka BBDXY rose 1 index point on the day… Nothing much to talk about there… The currencies all remained in the same clothes as they wore on Friday at the close. Remember yesterday, when I told you that the negative levels of Gold & Silver were nothing to get worried about that they would be easily reversed? Well, that didn’t happen, and the metals continued to lose throughout the day, with Gold losing $16.10 to close at $1,782.80, and Silver losing 18-cents to close at $23.28… I was all prepared to tell you how I think Gold is working is way out of the association with stocks (risk on), and that going forward we’ll see Gold rise on days when the dollar goes sideways or whatever, it won’t matter… I’m very into this new idea, and I think it has legs to run on, which means Gold & Silver are ready to break out.
And you don’t have to take my word on that change for the metals, Dave Kranzler of Investment Research Dynamics in Denver and Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter and the Golden Opportunities letters, see the monetary metal starting to rise as other assets fall. I need to thank the good folks at GATA for supplying me with that note.
The price of Oil rallied by $3 yesterday, and ended the day trading with a $73 handle… It’s been some time since Oil rallied, so this was a special occasion. I don’t know, or can find out why things changed yesterday, but they did, and that’s good for Oil… The price of gas in our area has fallen below the level it cost a year ago, so we have that going for us… until? Inflation is still king of the hill, folks, and it’s going to stay with us for some time, so we might as well get used to it causing prices to spike… Prices in everything, not just Oil, but the price spikes in food have been tremendous, and there’s no stopping them now.
The 10-year Treasury’s yield gained a bit yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 3.60% yield. I was talking to a former colleague last night, that’s been a bond trader for decades now, and he was talking about how it’s becoming fun again to trade bonds, now that there are yields to the bonds… Nobody wants a 10-year bond yielding 5/8’s%… That’s where we’ve come from, folks… Where we’re headed is unknown, because with the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel no longer in the bond buying business, or so they say, there’s no one to underpin the bonds any longer.
In The overnight markets last night… The dollar got sold a bit, with the BBDXY losing 2 index points. So, nothing really to write home about here… The euro remains above 1.05, and all the other currencies fall in line behind the Big Dog euro. I’m still interested in what’s going on with the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), and their willingness to allow the renminbi to rise VS the dollar when the Chinese economy has been basically shut down for some time now… The price of Gold is up in the early trading today, so maybe it can get back to what I was talking about above. Gold is up $7.80 this morning, and Silver is up 4-cents to start the day today.
There really isn’t much going on trading wise in the assets, because no one wants to go out on a limb ahead of the FOMC Meeting tomorrow. And then there’s the stupid CPI that will print today that gets everyone’s feathers ruffled. So, I suggest to sit back, grab that cup of coffee, and relax and wait for the chips to fall tomorrow.
Well, we’re one day closer to the FOMC Meeting that will be held tomorrow, with a press conference afterward to announce the latest rate hike. Like I said yesterday, I suspect the Fed is trying to play ball with the markets, and only hike rates 50 Basis Points this time… What a bunch of sissies! Come on Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, this is getting out of hand this inflation and you being so far behind the inflation 8 ball! You’ll never catch up with it only hiking rates 50 Basis Points at a time! Well, maybe at some point, but by then it won’t matter the inflation will have wiped out the middle class, and everyone else on the margin… But don’t let that get in the way of you trying to please the stock jockeys.
Bonds are still negative yielding… And will remain that way until the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel gets inflation back down to 2%, which in my opinion will be when the sun no longer shines on the US…. I had an old colleague last night challenge me on the inflation thing and say, that “everyone else has inflation too”… Yes, that’s true, but we don’t live in those countries, we live in this country, and it’s going to hurt us, the economy, the dollar, and our savings, who cares about other countries’ problems?
The other countries, while some have dragged their feet, with regard to hiking rates, have been way ahead of the Fed in their rate hikes… New Zealand, for example was at 4.5% a month ago, while the U.S. was still at 4%. And so on… The other countries are too dealing with being behind the inflation 8 ball, but at least they recognized the inflation for what it was an tried to head it off, and not try to lie to their respective consumers that the inflation was only “Transparent”… Shameful lies.
And as rates go higher, so house prices go lower… I read a piece this last weekend about how the writer believes that we are going to see another housing collapse… Well, we lived through the last one, some people made out like bandits, but most people lost a lot… I have no designs to sell my house, so I can afford to see it lose value, and then recover it years later. But if you have adjustable-rate loans on your mortgage, think about what it’s going to be like when you go to refinance at higher rates, and lower values of your home?
And that carries over to Corporations that have adjustable-rate loans, or just have loans coming due that need to be rolled over…They’ll have to do it at much higher rates, and what will that do to their bottom line? You and I know what it will do, and how they will pass those costs over to us… So, we have that to look forward to.
I apologize for being so darn serious this morning… It’s the new me! Not really, no worries, just a phase I’m in, after having my life flash before my eye last week. I’ll get back to smart aleck, humorous, and sometimes just plain silly me, eventually.
The U.S. Data Cupboard yesterday had the 1 year inflation forecast from the NY Fed, and they say that inflation in one year from now will be 5.2%… So, see what I’m talking about here? The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel have been notoriously wrong about their forecasts, so I’m saying that even these knuckleheads see 5.2% inflation in a year from now, and probably it will be higher than that. And the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is still going after inflation with pea shooters… I’m just saying.
Today’s Data Cupboard will have the stupid CPI for November… This report is a useless pack of lies, folks, come to grips with that, and ignore it if you can… I can’t because the markets still believe in Santa Clause, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, and CPI… So, because the markets are enthralled by the make believe, I’ll have to follow it to tell how the markets reacted…But you, me and guy down the street, that never stops that the stop sign in front of your house, knows that inflation is higher than 7.8% or whatever fairy tale rate the Gov’t want’s to lie to us about.
To recap… yesterday was a dud for the dollar and currencies… But Gold & Silver turned around their respective early morning losses into gains for the day, and Chuck believes this signals a change for the metals… Just wishin’ and hopin’ and prayin’… (Dusty Springfield). Chuck is quite serious today, and talks from the heart about how he sees things, so you won’t have wanted to have missed this issue, it’s Chuck at his best! (I guess I shouldn’t build myself up like that!).
For What It’s Worth… OK… have I got a treat for you all today… I have a link to an 18-minute interview between two of my favorite people to read… Matthew Piepenburg, and Grant Williams… How about that? This is an interview that you’ll want to save and watch and listen to over and over again, for what they are talking about, makes abundant sense, and doesn’t play into the Corporate Line… So, here’s the link, I hope you have the time to watch it, I’m sure you’ll be glad you did.
Matthew Piepenburg & Grant Williams: Gold’s Future in the Backdrop of a Systemic Failure in Financial “Leadership” – Matterhorn – GoldSwitzerland.
Here’s your snippet, but… you’ll need to watch the video, because this snippet will not do the video justice, so here: “Matterhorn Asset Management (MAM) principal, Matthew Piepenburg, sits down in Zurich with MAM advisor, Grant Williams, in a brief (18-min) yet compelling exchange of ideas as to how and where the tides are moving in global markets and public trust.
The conversation begins from the top down as Piepenburg addresses his view of, as well as concerns for, an openly deteriorating macro picture. Specifically, Piepenburg raises a theme of technological progress far outpacing human wisdom when it comes to transparent and accountable financial leadership at all levels, from the corporate “executive” ranks (think SBF/FTX) and commercial banks (Bear Sterns/Credit Suisse) to the broader and failed policies of the global central banks (with an emphasis on the US Fed).
Piepenburg, who sees a great deal of “platitudes and lofty language hiding a lot of bad math,” is concerned about central banker’s mis-managing a financial system which is now at a dangerous inflection point as to their misleading (and mis-handled) recessionary and inflationary narratives. Turning from monetary policy to tech-sector/market warnings, the massive turns of leverage and misuse of client funds recently highlighted by the FTX implosion is, sadly, nothing new; rather it serves as metaphor of a much larger and systemic problem which both Williams and Piepenburg detail at greater length.
Williams turns the discussion to the particular theme of accountability, remarking on how the shift in public focus has turned to specific “celebrity CEO” failures (Bankman Fried, Fuld, Holmes, Newman, Powell etc.) rather than the institutions themselves (FTX, Lehman, Theranos, WeWork, the Fed etc.).”
Chuck again… I love reading Grant Williams’ letter, Things That Make You Go Hmmmm… and whenever Matthew Piepenburg writes something, I get it and read it immediately… So… now you know.
Market Prices 12/13/ 2022: American Style: A$ .6782, kiwi .6408, C$ .7352, euro 1.0548, sterling 1.2303, Swiss $1.0682, European Style: rand 17.7050, krone 9.9209, SEK 10.3231, forint 388.45, zloty 4.4536, koruna 23.0229, RUB 63.36, yen 137.29, sing 1.3547, HKD 7.7792, INR 82.80, China 6.9815, peso 19.83, BRL 5.3052, BBDXY 1,263.81, Dollar Index 104.98, Oil $73.52, 10-year 3.58%, Silver $23.42, Platinum $1,017.00, Palladium $1,919.00, Copper $3.82, and Gold… $1,789.30.
That’s it for today… What a great evening last night! Frank Trotter, Chris Lissner, and John Dubinsky, all former colleagues at Mark Twain Bank, renewed their yearly get together of all the former Mark Twain Bank people that are still around. I got to see good friends, Ellie, Janet, Michelle, Chris, Tim, Dean, Don, Ty, that wily old veteran, Jack, and many more… What a great time to get caught up with everyone, as we had been unable to get together for the last two years, because, of, well you know why… I even had a few people ask me how to sign up for the Pfennig, for they were unaware that I still wrote it! I got tired of standing, my legs were hurting me, and so I headed home early, thinking about all those folks… Some of them had been colleagues of mine 30 years ago, and they asked about Dawn and Andrew, and had no idea that Alex had come along! Ok… Well, Leif Shires and his band take us to the finish line with their version of the song: Here We Come A Caroling… I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!