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For all the super bullish and bearish readers.
Please send me a guesstimate sheet which takes it to 21000 and 23000
This is a good time for exercise. Can mail me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com
NIFTY CALCULATOR FEB 2024
Here is a sheet where the expected price is exactly same as closing prices, download the calculator below and input prices in the ‘Expected Price’ column and get expected Nifty level
.
Download – Nifty-Calculator-Feb-2024
Interesting Observations
- Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI bank, Infosys, ITC = 39.47%vs 39.89% of Nifty in Jan 2024
- Top 10 stocks constitute 56.54%vs 57.15% of the Nifty in Jan 2024
- Top 20 stocks constitute 75.16%vs 75.28% of the Nifty in Jan 2024
- HDFC bank Ltd is the top weight at 10.97% vs 11.57% of the Nifty in Jan 2024 (After merger of Hdfc twins), followed by Reliance at 10.28%. 21.25%of the Index.
- Reliance + HDFC= 21.25%of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 21% of India’s GDP is not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
- Bottom 25 stocks have less than 1%weight and total weight at 18.72% vs 18.6% in Jan 2024.
- Reliance had a demerger of Jio Financial services which is listed separately now.
Sectoral Observations
Weightage Changes
- Banks and Financials dropped from recent high of 38.45% in Apr 2023 to 32.48% now for past two months. It is bottom from past 4 years.
- Power at 3% increased from 2% May 2023.
- Media at 0.
- Oil and Gas from 14.78% in June 2022 to 12.99%(Increased slightly from Jan 2024). ‘Oil and Gas’ is now renamed as ‘Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels’. Coal India is now classified under Oil, Gas, and Consumable fuels. Earlier it was classified under Metals. IOC out from the index which was classified under Oil and Gas.
- Metals from 3.17% in Feb 2023 to 3.67% . Coal India is now classified under ‘Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels’. Earlier it was under Metals.
- IT weights increased from 12.64% in June 2023 to 14.47% which increased after 3 months of constant weight 2023.
- Automobile at 7.16% Increasing steadily from past few months.
- Consumer Durablesweight decreased slightly to 2.89% in Feb 2024 from 3.18% in Sep 2023.
- Healthcare at 4.49% increasing continuously from 3.98% in Dec 2023.
- Construction material is at 2.03% decreased slightly from past few month
- FMCG now at 8.33% decreasing slowly compared to past months from high of 9.97 May 2023.
Do check this video on Nifty Calculator –
How to Guess?
- Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves, etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
- Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
- Start with changing the default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
- Then change stocks that you think may not do the default move.
- Also do remember there is not a direct correlation between the economy with the Nifty.
Things to Note
- One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
- There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
- Nifty is now at its All time high.
- Putting in the numbers looks like we are going to stay sideways for some time. What’s your call?
Thank you for reading the article
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