Review of the main events of the Forex economic calendar for the next trading week (26.02.2024 – 03.03.2024)

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The dollar retains positive dynamics supported by the growing profitability of the US government bonds.

After the positive macro statistics released earlier in February, investors continue to monitor the speeches of representatives of the Fed. The latter are almost united in the opinion that, although the central bank has achieved progress in reducing inflationary pressure, the risks of inflation growth are still there, so it’s too soon to start mitigating monetary policy.

During the week 26.02.2024 – 03.03.2024, market participants will pay attention to the publication of important macro statistics from Australia, Germany, Eurozone, China, the US, as well as the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of New Zealand.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. Time is GMT

Monday, February 26

23:30 JPY National Consumer Price Index

The largest part of total inflation is consumer prices. In case of a price increase, the central bank is forced to increase interest rates to contain inflation. In opposite cases, with a decrease in inflation or signs of deflation (when the purchasing power of money is growing, and prices for goods and services are declining), the central bank usually seeks to devalue national currency, lowering interest rates to stimulate aggregate demand.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator for assessing the inflation rate and changing customer preferences in Japan.

A high value of this indicator is favorable for Japanese Ina (JPY), while a low value represents a negative (bearish) factor.

Previous values (in annual terms):

  •      CPI: +2.6%, +2.8%, +3.3% +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +4.3%(in January 2023),
  •      Core CPI (excluding prices for food and energy products): +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.2%, +4.3%, +4.3%, +4.2% , +4.3%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.2% (in January 2023)

Tuesday, February 27

12:30 USD Durable goods orders. Capital goods orders (ex defense and aviation)

Durable goods are solid products with an estimated service life of more than 3 years, such as cars, computers, household appliances, and aircraft. The production of these goods requires significant investments. Durable goods orders are a leading indicator, which reflects a change in the total cost of new orders received by manufacturers. The growth of orders for these goods indicates that manufacturers increase activity in order to fulfill these orders.

Capital goods are durable goods used for the production of other goods and services. In the current indicator, goods produced in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy are not taken into account.

Positive data strengthen the dollar, while negative data have a negative impact on the dollar. Any worsening of the indicator compared to previous values and/or the forecast can also lead to negative consequences for the dollar quotes, while data better than the forecast will have a positive effect on it.

Durable goods orders previous values: +0,6%, +0,4%, -0,3% +0,4% +0,5%, +0,1%, +0,1%, +0,7%, -0,6%, +0,3%, +0,1%, +0,3% (January 2023).

Capital goods orders ex defense and aviation previous values: +0,3%, +1,0%, -0,6%, +0,5%, +1,1%, -0,4%, -0,4%, +0,4%, +0,7%, -0,6%, -0,2%, +0,9% (January 2023).

15:00 USD Consumer confidence level

The report on the results of the Conference Board survey with the participation of about 3,000 American households offers respondents to evaluate current and future economic conditions, as well as the general economic situation in the United States. The confidence of American consumers in the economic development of the country and the stability of their economic situation is a key indicator of consumer expenses that play an important role in general economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates an increase in the economy, while low indicates stagnation.

Previous indicator values: 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.

An increase in the indicator will support the dollar, while a decrease in value will weaken it.

Wednesday, February 28

00:30 AUD Consumer Price Index

The inflationary Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the RBA and the Australian Statistics Bureau evaluates the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services in Australia. CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in buyer preferences. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD, and a low value is negative. Previous values of the indicator: +3.4%, +4.3%, +4.9%, +5.6%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +5.4%.

The target inflation level of the Central Bank of Australia is in the range of 2% – 3%. As follows from the minutes of one of the last meetings of the RBA, to return inflation to the target level, “further increases in the interest rate” are possible.

The RBA, like most other world’s largest central banks, is still facing the problem of high inflation.

The expected positive value of the indicator will probably provide support for the AUD. If the indicator comes out worse than the forecast, this will negatively affect the AUD in the short term.

01:00 NZD RB of New Zealand interest rate decision. Accompanying statement. Monetary policy statement

Following the meetings held in October and November 2021, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the key interest rate (for the first time in 7 years) to 0.50% and then to 0.75%. The interest rate was raised again to 1.5% in February and April 2022 to ease inflation and contain rapidly rising house prices. Currently the RBNZ interest rate is 5.50%.

The RBNZ previously stated that the economy no longer needed the current level of monetary stimulus.

At this meeting, the RBNZ may either raise the interest rate again, and its leaders may also speak out in favor of further increasing the interest rate at subsequent meetings, or leave the rate at the current level. Market participants monitoring the NZD quotes should be prepared for a sharp increase in volatility during this time period.

In the accompanying statement and comments, the RBNZ management will provide an explanation of the interest rate decision and comment on the economic conditions that contributed to this decision.

At this time, volatility in New Zealand dollar quotes may increase sharply.

Note that at the end of the July 2023 meeting, the leaders of the Central Bank of New Zealand kept the interest rate at 5.50%. This was the first pause since the RBNZ began tightening monetary policy in August 2021. In the accompanying statement, the RBNZ noted that the current parameters of monetary policy are already restrictive.

02:00 NZD Press conference of the RBNZ

The head of the RBNZ Edrian Orr will comment on the interest rate decisions. Usually the volatility in NZD quotes increases during such events. Orr’s speeches often serve as an unofficial source of information about the further direction of the monetary policy of the RBNZ. In his opinion, the country’s monetary policy should correlate both with the dynamics of employment and financial stability of the state, and inflation.

13:30 USD US annual GDP for 4th quarter (second estimate)

GDP is one of the key indicators (along with the data on the labor and inflation market) for the Fed from the point of view of its monetary policy. The strong result strengthens the US dollar; a weak GDP report negatively affects the US dollar. In the previous 3rd quarter of 2023, GDP increased by +4.9%, after growth by +2.1% in the 2nd quarter, +2.0%, +2.6%, +3.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2022, falling by -0.6% in the 2nd quarter, -1.6% in the 1st quarter, +6.9% growth in the 4th quarter of 2021, +2.3% In the 3rd quarter, in the 2nd quarter GDP grew by +6.7%, in the 1st quarter of 2021 – by +6.3%.

If the data indicates a decrease in GDP in the 4th quarter of 2023, the dollar will be under strong pressure. Positive GDP data will support the dollar and US stock indices. The preliminary estimate was +3.3%.

Thursday, February 29

00:30 AUDRetail sales index

The retail sales index is published monthly by the Australian Statistics Bureau and evaluates the total volume of retail sales. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer trust and reflects the state of the retail sector in the near future. Growth of the index is usually a positive factor for the AUD; a decrease in the indicator will negatively affect the AUD. The previous value of the index (for December) -2.7% (after +2.0%, -0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0.6% , +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in the previous months). If the data is weaker than the previous value, the AUD can decrease shortly sharply; if it’s above the previous values, the AUD is likely to strengthen.

07:00 EUR Retail sales

Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing changes in the volume of sales in the retail sector. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it.

Previous values: -1.6% (-1.7% annualized), -2.5% (-2.4% annualized), +1.1% (-0.1% annualized) , -0.8% (-4.3% annualized), -1.2% (-2.3% annualized), -0.8% (-2.2% annualized), – 0.8% (-1.6% annualized), +0.4% (-2.1% annualized), +0.8% (-4.3% annualized), -2, 4% (-8.6% annualized), -1.3% (-7.1% annualized), -0.3% (-3.8% annualized in January 2023).

Data indicate a continued slowdown in this sector of the German economy. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value will likely have a positive impact on the euro, but only in the short term.

08:00 CHF Switzerland GDP for the 4th quarter of 2023

GDP is considered an indicator of the general state of the country’s economy and evaluates the pace of its growth or decline. The report on gross domestic product expresses in monetary equivalent the total value of all final goods and services produced by Switzerland over a certain period of time. The growing trend of the GDP indicator is considered a positive factor for the national currency (franc), and the low result is negative (or bearish).

Previous values of the Switzerland GDP indicator: +0.3% (+0.3% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, 0% (+0.5% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +0.3% ( +0.6% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2023, +0.7% (in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2023, +0.2% ( +0.8% in annual terms ) in the 3rd quarter, +0.3% ( +4.7% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2022; by +0.5% (+4.4% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2022; by +0.3% ( +3.7% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2021, by +1.7% ( +4.1% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter of 2021, by +1.8% ( + 7.7% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2021.

Switzerland’s GDP and economy appear to be recovering at a very uneven pace from their decline in the first half of 2020, although this decline does not compare with the decline in GDP in Germany, the Eurozone and the United States.

The data points to the continued recovery of the Swiss economy, although still at a slow pace, which is a positive factor for the franc.

If the data turns out to be weaker than expected, the franc may decline in the short term. However, one should not expect a strong fall in the franc, since it is in active demand as a protective asset. Better-than-forecast data could strengthen the franc in the short term.

13:00 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Germany (preliminary release)

This index is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated on the basis of statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous indicator values: +3.1% in January, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9.2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (annualized).

The data suggests inflation in Germany continues to slow down, which in turn puts pressure on the ECB to ease its monetary policy. Data weaker than the previous value will likely have a negative impact on the euro. And, conversely, the resumption of inflation growth could provoke a strengthening of the euro. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro. If data for February turns out to be better than previous values, then the euro may strengthen in the short term.

13:30 CAD Canada’s GDP. Canada’s annual GDP data

Canada’s GDP report is published by Statistics Canada. A strong report will strengthen the CAD. A weak GDP report will have a negative impact on the CAD. The previous report showed Canadian GDP growth of +0.2% (in December 2023).

Canada’s quarterly GDP report reflects the total volume of all goods and services produced by Canada in a quarter (in annual terms) and is considered an indicator of the overall health of the Canadian economy. In the previous 3rd quarter, GDP decreased by -0.3% (-1.1% in annual terms) after a decrease of -0.2% in the 2nd quarter, an increase of +2.6% in the 1st quarter 2023, zero growth in the 4th quarter, +2.9% growth in the 3rd quarter of 2022, +3.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +3.1% in the 1st quarter of 2022 year (in annual terms).

If the data for the 4th quarter of 2023 turns out to be stronger than the previous value and/or forecast, then the CAD will strengthen.

13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)

Personal consumption expenditure data measures the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. Core PCE price index does not include food and energy prices. Annual Core PCE is the Fed’s main measure of inflation.

In turn, the inflation rate (in addition to data from the labor market and GDP) is important for the Fed when determining the parameters of its monetary policy. Rising prices put pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.

PCE data above the forecast and/or previous values could push the US dollar higher, while a decrease in the indicator would most likely have a negative impact on the dollar.

Previous values (annualized): +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% + 4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5, 2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% (in January 2022).

Friday, March 1

01:00 CNY Manufacturing and Services PMI of the Chinese economy from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

This is an important indicator of the state of the Chinese economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered as positive and strengthens the CNY, while a result below 50 is negative for the yuan. Previous values: 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative growth of the index and the value of 50 should have a positive effect on the CNY. Data above 50 indicates an increase in activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. Otherwise, and if the indicator is below 50, the yuan will be under pressure and will probably decline.

A similar PMI in the services sector assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the yuan. Previous values: 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above 50, which is likely to have a positive impact on the yuan quotes. Otherwise, and if the indicator is below 50, the yuan will be under pressure and will probably decline.

01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI of the Chinese economy

The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of the health of China’s manufacturing sector. China’s economy is the second largest in the world, so the release of important macroeconomic indicators from China can have a strong impact on the entire financial market.

Previous values: 50.8, 50.8, 50.7, 49.5, 50.6, 51.0, 49.2, 50.5, 50.9, 49.5, 50.0, 51.6 , 49.2 (in January 2023).

A relative decrease in the value of the indicator and a deepening into the zone below 50 may negatively affect the yuan quotes, as well as the quotes of such commodity currencies as the New Zealand and Australian dollars; data better than the forecast/previous values will have a positive impact on them.

10:00 EUR Consumer price index. Core Consumer Price Index (preliminary release)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and measures changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.

Previous values (annualized): +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.4%, +2.9%, +4.3%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +6.1%, +6.1%, +7.0%, +6.9%, +8.5%, +8.6% (in January 2023), +9 .2%, +10.1%, +10.6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4 %, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% (in January 2022).

If the data turns out to be worse than forecast, the euro may decline sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value may strengthen the euro in the short term. Recall that the ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and data indicate that inflation in the Eurozone is still high, although there is also a slowing down trend.

Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator to provide a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the EUR, while a low result weakens it.

Previous values (annualized): +3.3%,+3.4%, +3.6% +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +5.5%, + 5.5%, +5.3%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.3%, +5.2%, +5, 0%, +5.0%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0% , +2.7%, +2.3% (in January 2022).

If data for February 2024 turns out to be weaker than the previous value or forecast, this could have a negative impact on the euro. If the data turns out to be better than the forecast or the previous value, then the euro will most likely react with an increase in quotations.

Judging by the data presented, inflation in the Eurozone is slowing down, although still at a very slow pace, and this is a negative (in normal economic conditions) factor for the euro.

15:00 USD Manufacturing PMI (from ISM). University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (final release)

The US Manufacturing PMI published by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) is an important indicator of the health of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, while a result below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar.

Previous indicator values: 49.1 in January, 47.4 in December, 46.7 in November, 46.7 in October, 49.0 in September, 47.6 in August, 46.4 in July, 46.0 in June, 46.9 in May, 47.1 in April, 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February, 47.4 (in January 2023).

The index is below 50, indicating a slowdown in this sector of the American economy. However, the relative rise is likely to support the dollar. If the indicator falls below the forecast and especially below 50, the dollar may sharply weaken in the short term.

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high level indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation. Previous indicator values: 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63.5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62, 8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the USD, and a decrease in the value will weaken the dollar. Data indicate an uneven recovery of this indicator, which is negative for the USD. Data worse than previous values may have a negative impact on the dollar in the short term.

Preliminary value: 79.6 (predicted 80.0).

Price chart of NZDUSD in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.

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