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JPY: depreciation is the main scenario
Japan is to release statistics on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, and the consumer confidence index. The yen is still depreciated and is unlikely to react to these data. However, these indicators are particularly important for understanding what is happening in the country’s economy and for figuring out the future actions of the Bank of Japan.
USD: still strong
Investors are awaiting certainty in the US national debt issue. As soon as this happens, the USD rate could fall significantly. Employment market data for May will be published this week. The stronger the statistics are, the greater support the USD will get.
EUR: under pressure
In addition to the economic statistics from the Eurozone, the ECB will release a financial stability report that is likely to show price pressure is easing. It is worth paying attention to the May inflation report: it might fall to 6.3% from 7.0% earlier. A report on the unemployment rate will also be published. The EUR will remain under pressure in the absence of news on the US national debt issue.
GBP: do not jump to conclusions
The UK will release data on mortgage approvals, new retail loans, and the manufacturing activity index. This data will give a better idea of the actual state of the UK economy and will support the GBP if the statistics prove to be strong.
Brent: awaiting news
Investors are waiting for a new OPEC+ meeting, but a decision on another output cut is unlikely to be approved. Worldwide energy demand remains subdued, which is a good trigger for commodity prices. Brent will rise in price when the US Congress announces its decision on the national debt limit.
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