The news flow is gaining momentum, bringing more data, and the stock market activity steadily increases.
EUR: in a strong position
GBP: a potential decline
The UK is set to be active in the macroeconomic calendar, with December’s inflation report being one of the main releases. The consumer price index is expected to decrease from 3.9% to 3.8% y/y. If the forecast is accurate, the GBP exchange rate may slightly decline. The components of this release are essential.
USD: focus on interest rate forecasts
The US is gearing up to publish much data, from retail sales and industrial production in December to statistics on the real estate market and the Michigan consumer sentiment index. The main driver for the USD is forecasts about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate: positive developments in this issue may trigger a drop in the US dollar exchange rate.
JPY: signalling inflation
Japan will release core inflation statistics. If the figure has decreased, this might be unfavourable news for the JPY: such statistics may negatively affect the Bank of Japan’s plans to abandon an ultra-soft monetary policy.
China: support for risk assets
China is set to present a great deal of significant information, such as reports on the Q4 2023 GDP, data on fixed asset investments, and statistics on industrial production and the unemployment rate. Robust figures may provide support for assets linked to risk. However, unpleasant surprises are possible.