Market Spotlight: UK Wages & Unemployment Rise Ahead of BOE

Home » Market Spotlight: UK Wages & Unemployment Rise Ahead of BOE

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Further Poor UK DataOn the back of yesterday's UK GDP print which showed that economic activity contracted 0.3% in the three months through October, UK traders suffered yet further bad news today. UK wages were seen rising 6.1% over the same period, up from 6% prior while the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% from 3.6% prior. With prices rising and the workforce weakening, the near-term economic outlook for the UK has shifted lower again. Focus now turns to the BOE meeting on Thursday.Recession Risks & BOE The BOE outlined UK recession risks last time around, warning that the UK was likely at the start of a 2-year recession. This week’s data looks to have confirmed this view and traders are now expecting the BOE to double down on the gloomy warnings offered last time around. Given the recession risks facing the UK the market is looking for a further .5% hike. However, on the back of the recent record inflation print and with wages seen rising again upside risks are visible into the meeting.Technical Views6B (GBP Futures)Looking at the market, the breakout above the bearish trend line has seen price trading up to test the summer highs around 1.2270. Price is currently stalled here. However, with momentum studies firmly bullish, focus is on a continued push higher and a test of the 1.2683 level next. Should we reverse from here however, 1.1730 is the next support to note.

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