Precious Metals Monday 12-12-2022

Metals Markets Await US CPI & FedFollowing the rallies we’ve seen over the last month or so, both gold and metal look hungry to break out here. Both metals have seen choppier action in recent weeks though have still been grinding higher amidst a broadly lower US Dollar.The key decider this week will of course be the FOMC on Wednesday. Just ahead of that event, however, we have the latest US CPI which is highly likely to decide which way the Fed’s goes. The market is currently looking for a further decline on headline CPI to 7.3% from 7.7%, which would be good news for metals if seen.However, on the back of Friday’s stronger-than-forecast US PPI reading, markets look primed for the Fed to deliver a hawkish outlook, citing the need to keep going with rates hikes while upside inflation risks remain. This is likely to weigh on metals, particularly if accompanied by hawkish action from the ECB and BOE on Thursday.However, if the Fed is seen to be less concerned about upside inflation risks now, perhaps instead focusing on the fact that trajectory is now lower and things are headed the right way, this might reassure markets somewhat allowing metals to take off as USD unwinds.Technical ViewsGoldPrice action in gold is looking very interesting here. The rally off the lows has been framed by a rising wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal formation, suggesting risks of a downside break. This is further endorsed by the bearish divergence we’re seeing in momentum studies. Price is currently struggling at the 1791.63 support and if we pierce below the structure here, 1722.37 will be the next support to note. To the topside, any break higher will turn focus to the 1871.04 level next.SilverThe move higher in silver is a little more advanced than the upside we’ve seen in gold with the market recently breaking above the 22.3205 level and holding a retest of the level from above. While this level holds, the focus remains on further upside. Worth noting we are seeing some bearish divergence creeping in on momentum studies, suggesting bearish reversal risks. With this in mind, prudent to monitor price action as the market tests the 24.0073 level. Any move below 22.3205 will turn focus to support at the 20.6398 level next.


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