US & UK Inflation Falls – GBPUSD Traders Await the Fed


US Inflation Cools FurtherThe peak inflation narrative has been given a further boost this week with the latest US and UK inflation data showing a cooling of consumer prices in both economies. In the US, annualised inflation was seen falling back to 7.1% last month, marking its lowest level since December 2021. This marks a further decline from the prior month’s 7.7% reading and was also below the 7.3% reading the market was looking for. Looking at the monthly breakdown, headline prices rose just 0.1%, down from the prior month’s 0.4% and below the 0.3% rise expected. Core prices, meanwhile, rose 0.2%, again, lower than both the prior and expected 0.3%.Attention Turns to FedWith US inflation now down a full 2% from the peak in the summer, the market turns its attention to the Fed later today. The reversal of initial gains in equities indices reflects a reluctance to show too much exuberance ahead of the main event later. While the downturn in inflation is clearly encouraging, the Fed still has a way to go and will want to avoid the market taking too dovish a view on next year, particularly with inflation still more than 3x above target.UK Inflation Falls in NovemberIn the UK, consumers were greeted by slightly better news today also. November CPI was seen falling back to 10.7% last month, down from the prior month’s 41-year highs at 11.1%. This was also below the 10.9% reading the market was looking for and saw core CPI falling to 6.3% from 6.5%. Hawkish risks ahead of the BOE tomorrow have likely now been diluted with the smaller .5% hike the most likely option. However, the BOE is widely expected to retain a hawkish outlook on rates as well as a gloomy view on the economy, particularly on the back of further weak GDP data earlier this week and news of an uptick in unemployment.Technical ViewsGBPUSDThe rally in GBPUSD this week has seen the market breaking out above the 1.2195 level, with the bull channel developing further. While price holds above this support level and with the retail market still heavily short, the focus is on a further push higher with 1.2659 the next key level to watch. To the downside, any drop back below the level will turn focus to the bull channel lows and the 1.1474 level beneath it.


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