TSLA analysis: Price Returns to Above the $170 Level, But for How Long?


After forming a low of the year on March 14, the TSLA share price managed to rise above the USD 170 level — investors reacted positively to Tesla’s decision to increase prices for electric vehicles in the US and Europe.

However, the TSLA stock market remains under pressure:
the TSLA price performs noticeably worse than the S&P 500 index;
the price forms a downward channel (shown in red);
Goldman Sachs analysts cut their forecast for Tesla shares to USD 190 from USD 220 for the next 12 months due to problems with production and sales.

Yahoo writes that investors are not happy with Musk’s attitude. The fall in Tesla shares could quickly stop if the company gets a “real CEO” or Musk changes his position and returns to work and positively promoting the brand.

What is the market outlook?

Bullish arguments:
→ the price is near an important support zone, which is formed by the 2023 pattern: a bullish gap that has been successfully tested;
→ a decrease in the TSLA price below the lower border of the downward channel creates short-term oversold conditions in the market.
→ Fortune reported on March 15 that Cathie Wood’s fund bought USD 35 million of TSLA stock.

Bearish arguments:
→ the bearish gap of early January works as resistance;
→ resistance may also include the psychological level of USD 200 and the median line of the descending channel.

At the same time, Barron’s writes that the approaching earnings season is the biggest risk for Tesla shares right now. Tesla is expected to report electric vehicle deliveries of about 480,000 units in the first quarter of 2024, according to estimates from Bloomberg and FactSet. However, investors should pay attention to more recent estimates that have emerged in the last couple of weeks — they point to a figure of around 430,000 units.

Actual values below expectations may significantly lower the price of TSLA shares — it is possible that the price will continue to move within the descending channel, breaking through the support area. The news release is scheduled for April 17.

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