US Dollar Ended the Week under Pressure

The February labour market report was published in the United States. The number of new jobs created by the national economy outside the agricultural sector increased by 275.0k in January after an increase of 229.0k a month earlier, while experts expected an increase of 200.0k. It should also be noted that the January figure was revised from the previous estimate of 353.0k jobs. The average hourly wage in annual terms adjusted from 4.4% to 4.3%, and in monthly terms, from 0.5% to 0.1%. At the same time, the unemployment rate in February increased sharply from 3.7% to 3.9%.


The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0940. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0980, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.1100. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0887, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0842.

Market activity remains subdued as investors analyse macroeconomic data released last week. On Friday, March 8, trading participants drew attention to the decline in the annual dynamics of industrial production in Germany in January by 5.5% after -3.5% in the previous month, and in monthly terms the figure strengthened by 1.0% after a reduction of 2 .0% in December against a forecast of 0.6%, which allows the German economy to emerge from recession in the near future. The German producer price index added 0.2% monthly after -0.8% in December, and slowed down by 4.4% year-on-year after -5.1%, while markets were expecting -6.6%. Trading participants also assessed statistics on the eurozone GDP product for the fourth quarter of 2023: on a quarterly basis, the figure remained at 0.0%, and on an annual basis it increased by 0.1%, which coincided with expectations.

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair shows that a new upward channel has formed at the highs of last week. Now the price is near the lower border and may continue to rise.


The GBP/USD pair is trading in different directions, consolidating near the 1.2850 mark. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.893, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.2930. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.819, a break below could take the pair towards 1.2709.

Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions, while the pound is still inclined to further rise, having completed last week’s trading with a noticeable increase. The British currency was supported, among other things, by the publication of the draft budget from UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, which allowed analysts to focus on real macroeconomic indicators, as well as expectations that the Bank of England is likely to launch a program to reduce borrowing costs, one of the last among leading central banks. Thus, investors assume that the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates as early as June, while the Bank of England may begin to ease monetary conditions only in August. Tomorrow market participants will focus on data on the UK labour market for January-February. Forecasts suggest that average wages including bonuses may slow from 5.8% to 5.7%, and the unemployment rate may remain at the same level of 3.8%.

Based on last week’s highs, a new ascending channel has formed on the GBP/USD chart. Now the price is near the lower border and may continue to rise.


The USD/JPY pair is consolidating near the 150.50 mark. Trading participants are in no hurry to open new positions at the beginning of the week, while the news background is likely not to lead to increased volatility in the market. Strong resistance on the USD/JPY chart can be seen at 151.00, a break higher could trigger a rise to 150.76. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.29, a break below could take the pair towards 149.67.

The USD/JPY pair shows near-zero dynamics, holding close to the 146.90 mark. Investors are in no hurry to further sell the US currency, preferring to wait for tomorrow's publication of February statistics on consumer inflation. In addition, on Thursday, March 14, data on producer prices will be presented. Forecasts do not imply significant changes in the dynamics of indicators, and therefore the market reaction may be restrained. Meanwhile, the yen is supported by expectations of a possible abandonment of negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan. Analysts expect that already this month some members of the Monetary Policy Committee may speak out in favour of tightening the rhetoric. Meanwhile, macroeconomic statistics published today do not provide any support to the yen. Thus, gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 added 0.1% after -0.1% in the previous period, while analysts expected 0.3%, and in annual terms the figure was 0.4% as forecast at 1.1%.

Based on the highs of last week, a new downward channel has formed. Now the price has moved away from the upper limit and may continue to decline.

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