[ad_1]
For all the super bullish and bearish readers.
Please send me a guesstimate sheet which takes it to 17000 and 19000
This is a good time for exercise. Can mail me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com
NIFTY CALCULATOR April 2023
Here is a sheet where the expected price is exactly same as closing prices, download the calculator below and input prices in the ‘Expected Price’ column and get expected Nifty level
Download – Nifty-Calculator-Apr-2023
Interesting Observations
- Top 5 stocks – Reliance, HDFC Bank, Infosys, ICICI Bank, HDFC = 39.75%vs 40.83% of Nifty in Feb 2023
- Top 10 stocks constitute 58.80%vs 57.98% of the Nifty in Feb 2023
- Top 20 stocks constitute 77.57%vs 77.18% of the Nifty in Feb 2023
- Reliance is the top weight at 10.32%, followed by HDFC Bank at 9.38%. 19.7 % of the Index.
- Reliance + HDFC Twins= 26.04% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 25% of India’s GDP is not equal to Reliance +HDFC)
- HDFC Twins together constitute 15.72% of Nifty (Better than last month)
- ICICI Bank is now a 3rd highest weight in Nifty at 8.08%
- Bottom 25 stocks have less than 1% weight and total weight at 17.08%
Sectoral Observations
Weightage Changes
- Banks and Financials at 38.45% (Getting its mojo back)
- IT at 12.73% (Lowest Weights in some time – Below Sep 2022 levels)
- FMCG at 9.73% (Increasing slowly)
- Power at 2.05%
- Oil and Gas at 12.15% (Constant)
- Metals at 3.42% (Weights stopped reducing)
- Construction at 3.6% (Increasing weight due to L&T)
- Automobile at 5.52% (Constant)
- Consumer Durables weight decreased to 2.85% (lowest) from 3.43% (Sep 2022).
- Healthcare at 3.91%.
Some changes in classification :
- Consumer goods sector is now divided into Consumer Durables and FMCG.
- ‘Oil and Gas’ now renamed as ‘Oil, Gas and consumable fuels’. Coal India now classified under Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels. Earlier it was classified under metals. IOC out from index which was classified under Oil and Gas
- ‘Automobile’ Sector renamed as ‘Automobile and Auto Components’.
- ‘Metals’ renamed as ‘Metals and Mining’. Coal India no longer classified under this sector.
- ‘Cement and Cement Products’ sector renamed as ‘Construction Material’.
- ‘Pharma’ sector renamed as ‘Healthcare’ and Apollo hospital is included in the index under this sector.
- ‘Fertilizers and Pesticides’ sector renamed as ‘Chemicals’.
Do check this video on Nifty Calculator – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbmhiLXYx2k
What is a Nifty Calculator?
-> As per the weightage given by NSE for Nifty stocks we have created the Nifty Calculator.
-> Change the expected price and the expected Nifty will change accordingly
-> Create 3 different sheets for yourself–
Pessimistic (where you put the worst possible prices you think. Default 10% down)
Optimistic (the best prices possible. Default 10% up)
Neutral/Rational/Technical / Fundamental (prices on any reasoning)
Please Note as weights change every day by a small margin this will not give an accurate estimate but will be approximate.
How to Guess?
- Everyone has a view on Nifty based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves, etc. Try to grill it down to the constituents. It should be a reflection of your actual guesstimate.
- Just estimating wild scenarios on the top 20 stocks is enough given the 75-80% weight.
- Start with changing the default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
- Then change stocks that you think may not do the default move.
- Also do remember there is not a direct correlation between the economy with the Nifty.
Things to Note
- One of the reasons we keep posting this is to make an actual unbiased guess every month/quarter.
- There have been numerous warnings as to how markets are overheated. Understanding the constituents allows you to realize how Nifty is not supposed to reflect the Economy.
- Nifty is now at the middle from a recent low of 16747 and 18887 the highs.
- Putting in the numbers looks like we are going to stay sideways for some time. What’s your call?
Thank you for reading the article
[ad_2]
Source link
