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Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 2315.32 with a target of 2430.00 – 2500.00.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 2315.32 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 2154.83 – 2019.86.
Analysis: a descending correction appears to have formed as the fourth wave (4) of larger degree on the daily chart. The fifth wave (5) is unfolding, with first wave 3 of (5) forming as its part. Apparently, the third wave of smaller degree iii of 3 is forming on the H4 time frame, with wave (iii) of iii developing inside. Wave iii of (iii) continues developing on the H1 chart. If this assumption is correct, the XAUUSD pair will continue to grow to the levels of 2430.00 – 2500.00. The level of 2315.32 is critical in this scenario as a breakout will enable the pair to continue falling to the levels of 2154.83 – 2019.86.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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