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Main scenario: consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1809.72 with a target of 1900.00 – 1961.31.
Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1809.72 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1771.95 – 1747.55.
Analysis: on the daily chart, a downside correction presumably finished developing as the fourth wave of larger degree (4), and the fifth wave (5) is forming. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (5) is formed and a local correction is completed as second wave 2 of (5) on the H4 chart. The third wave 3 of (5) started unfolding, with wave i of 3 developing as its part. On the H1 chart, a counter-trend wave (i) of i of 3 is formed, a local correction (ii) of i of 3 is completed, and wave (iii) of i of 3 started unfolding. If the presumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1900.00 – 1961.31. The level of 1809.72 is critical in this scenario as its breakout will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1771.95 – 1747.55.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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